There’s a Very Real Connection Between Climate Change and Holes
When I read that enough countries had ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate, I was elated.
We’re finally working together, accepting that the planet is in a bad way, and working towards some solutions.
My optimism however, was misplaced.
Why? Because there’s a huge problem which our politicians don’t seem to grasp.
What is The Paris Agreement?
Just to recap briefly, COP21 was a gathering of nations in 2015 where the climate was discussed. It was agreed (after much wrangling) that countries would:
- Pledge to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C
- Try to limit the increase to 1.5C
There were lots of photos in the media of smiling politicians congratulating themselves.
However, it wouldn’t come into force unless countries that make up 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions agreed to ratify it. And this happened on 5th October – helped greatly by China and the US ratifying.
That was good news.
How Will We Limit Global Warming?
Global warming or climate change is caused by (amongst others) carbon emissions – mostly from fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). By burning less fossil fuel and increasing the use of renewable energy (solar, wind) it is hoped to keep warming under control.
BUT – A New Report Casts Doubt
Many scientists and environmentalists have been voicing doubts that the pledges made in the Paris Agreement will be enough to achieve the goal of keeping temperature increase to below 2 degrees C.
Now, a new report by Oil Change International shows that they are right.
Using the industry’s own figures, it shows that if we continue to burn the oil, gas and coal that we’re currently extracting, global temperatures will rise beyond 2C.
Yet there are huge reserves pending approval or in the planning stages.
And even if all coal mining were to be shut down today (which it won’t be), the oil and gas lined up so far would take warming beyond 1.5C.
According to US environmentalist Bill McKibben, if we want to keep warming below 2C, we can only use around 85% of the fossil fuel that’s currently being exploited. To limit warming to 1.5C, we can extract only one third. Yes, just one third of the current oil, gas and coal extraction.
So, our governments are pledging to combat climate change by ratifying the Paris Agreement – and yet there are plans all over the world to exploit new fossil fuel reserves.
See the problem? They sign to limit warming – then their actions ensure that they won’t.
We simply cannot open any new reserves – fracking for gas, drilling for oil or digging for coal – and still meet the Paris commitments.
Do our governments not understand this?
But What About Carbon Storage?
There’s a lot of talk about carbon capture – capturing harmful emissions and burying them in the ground. But this technology has not been proved on a large scale, and it appears to be a highly difficult undertaking.
So, What’s the Solution?
The solution is in fact, relatively simple.
Stop digging.
When we leave fossil fuels in the ground, their harmful carbon also stays in the ground. (#KeepItInTheGround)
It’s scientifically proven. And it can be done right now.
Why Aren’t Our Governments Doing This?
Why are our global governments approving new fracking wells and new oil drills when, to meet the Paris commitments, they can’t even fully extract what’s being worked on right now?
Let’s look at the UK as an example. The new British Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed to ratify the Paris Agreement. But her government has just given approval for fracking (shale gas) wells in Lancashire, despite huge opposition.
“Shale gas has the potential to power economic growth, support 64,000 jobs, and provide a new domestic energy source, making us less reliant on imports” is the reasoning behind the approval.
But renewable energy would also power economic growth, it would also provide jobs, and it would make the UK less reliant on imports. So why not encourage renewables instead of fracking?
If you live in the UK and object to a wind turbine near you, you have the right to a special veto to stop it. But the UK government has awarded itself special powers to override local decisions on fracking, to ensure that it goes ahead. And locals may even get cash payments from the tax revenues of fracking. (I think that’s called bribery). There is no such entitlement to share the income from wind power.
Why this oh-so-obvious bias? It’s because the fossil fuel companies are rich and powerful. Renewables can be profitable, but they don’t offer the incredibly vast riches of fossil fuels. (Big Oil does not own the sun).
In the U.S., oil production has surged 82 percent to near-record levels in the past 7 years, and natural gas is up by nearly one-quarter. There is now drilling for oil in the Arctic Ocean and in Atlantic waters hugging the East Coast. A 40-year-old ban on the export of most U.S. crude has been lifted.
It’s unlikely that the US will meet the climate goals it agreed to in Paris.
Our Choices
Governments around the world know we need to reduce our use of fossil fuels – even though their actions are mostly encouraging its growth.
There are 3 ways to reduce fossil fuel usage:
- A gradual, managed decline of existing production, replacing it with renewable energy and low-carbon infrastructure (this offers great employment potential).
- Allow fossil fuel production to continue at current rates for a while longer, followed by a sudden and severe termination of the sector (this would have dire consequences for both jobs and economies).
- “Business as Usual”: Continue to produce fossil fuels as we do today, followed by climate breakdown (almost unimaginable catastrophic results).
Why is this a difficult choice?
If you think about it, it’s got to be easier to NOT develop new fossil fuel reserves, than it is to develop them now and then close them later.
Get people employed now in renewable energy which has a future.
Instead, our governments seem to be choosing option 3. Globally, about $14 trillion will be spent on new fossil fuel extraction over the next 20 years.
What Does It Matter?
It can be quite difficult to take action now to prevent something that will happen in the future.
But in fact, climate change is already happening. And it will get worse. Much worse.
We’ve already raised the world’s temperature by one degree. That one degree of warming was enough to:
- melt almost half the ice in the Arctic
- kill off major amounts of the world’s coral
- unleash lethal floods and drought
We’ve just had the hottest months ever recorded on our planet. Basra, Iraq hit 129 degrees F (54 C) this year, approaching the point where humans can’t survive outdoors.
This new report shows us that limiting warming to 2 degrees won’t even be enough. We MUST keep fossil fuels in the ground
It’s the only realistic approach. It what the numbers tell us.
Big Oil and Big Coal say it’s unrealistic. It isn’t. It’s a necessity.
As the Oil Change International report puts it, “One of the most powerful climate policy levers is also the simplest: stop digging.”
That is, after all, the first rule of holes.
And climate change is the biggest hole we have ever dug for ourselves.
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Warm regards,
P.S. Don’t forget to download “Live Well, Live Green” for FREE here!
Related:
- Earth Passes 400 – what it means for Climate Change
- What result did you get in this Climate Change Quiz?
